Charts & data
Fed watch: FOMC schedule, rates and odds
Current target range
3.75–4.00%
Set 2026-09-16. Source: FOMC statement; matches FRED DFEDTARL/DFEDTARU as of 2026-10-15.
Next FOMC decision
Oct 27–28, 2026
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Statement due at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day, per the Fed's usual release time.
FOMC meeting schedule, 2026 and 2027
Dates are from the Federal Reserve's FOMC calendar. Meetings marked “SEP” come with the Summary of Economic Projections, which includes the dot plot of each official's rate projection. Past decisions are quoted from each statement.
| Dates | SEP / dot plot | Decision | Target range after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27–28, 2026 | No | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% |
| Mar 17–18, 2026 | Yes (SEP) | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% |
| Apr 28–29, 2026 | No | Hold | 3.50%–3.75% |
| Jun 16–17, 2026 | Yes (SEP) | Hold (12–0) | 3.50%–3.75% |
| Jul 28–29, 2026 | No | Hold (9–3) | 3.50%–3.75% |
| Sep 15–16, 2026 | Yes (SEP) | Hike 0.25 pt (12–0) | 3.75%–4.00% |
| Oct 27–28, 2026NEXT | No | Upcoming | – |
| Dec 8–9, 2026 | Yes (SEP) | Upcoming | – |
| Dates | SEP / dot plot | Decision | Target range after |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26–27, 2027 | No | Upcoming | – |
| Mar 16–17, 2027 | Yes (SEP) | Upcoming | – |
| Apr 27–28, 2027 | No | Upcoming | – |
| Jun 8–9, 2027 | Yes (SEP) | Upcoming | – |
| Jul 27–28, 2027 | No | Upcoming | – |
| Sep 14–15, 2027 | Yes (SEP) | Upcoming | – |
| Oct 26–27, 2027 | No | Upcoming | – |
| Dec 7–8, 2027 | Yes (SEP) | Upcoming | – |
Market odds for upcoming decisions
Implied probabilities from Kalshi's Fed decision markets, a CFTC-regulated exchange whose market data is publicly readable. Each figure is the midpoint of the best bid and ask for a “yes” contract (last trade if the spread is wide). Contracts are priced separately, so a meeting's outcomes may not add up to exactly 100%. Updated Oct 15, 2026, 9:58 PM ET; the page refreshes about every 15 minutes.
Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps1%
- Fed maintains rate71%
- Hike 25bps30%
- Hike >25bps1%
Source: Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26OCT
Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps2%
- Fed maintains rate21%
- Hike 25bps77%
- Hike >25bps5%
Source: Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26DEC
Fed decision in Jan 2027?
- Cut >25bps1%
- Cut 25bps3%
- Fed maintains rate55%
- Hike 25bps36%
- Hike >25bps2%
Source: Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-27JAN
Fed decision in Mar 2027?
- Cut >25bps5%
- Cut 25bps4%
- Fed maintains rate39%
- Hike 25bps62%
- Hike >25bps2%
Source: Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-27MAR
Compare with CME FedWatch
The CME FedWatch Tool derives probabilities from 30-day fed funds futures and is the most widely quoted measure. CME's terms do not allow republishing its data, so we link to it rather than copy it.
Open CME FedWatch →Fed funds rate history
Federal funds rate history
Monthly effective rate (FRED FEDFUNDS) and the top of the target range (FRED DFEDTARU, from Dec 2008), through 2026-09.
FEDFUNDS is a monthly average, so it lags meeting-day changes; latest month 2026-09. Target-range data begins in December 2008, when the Fed moved from a single target to a range.
Why the Fed matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's supply is fixed in code and no central bank can change it. Its dollar price still trades in markets shaped by the Fed. Analysts tend to watch three channels:
- Liquidity. The Fed steers short-term rates and the size of its balance sheet to influence borrowing costs and financial conditions (Federal Reserve). Cheaper, more plentiful money tends to support risk-taking across assets; tighter money tends to do the opposite.
- Real rates. Bitcoin pays no yield. When inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (FRED DFII10) are high, holding a non-yielding asset has a higher opportunity cost; when they are low or negative, that cost shrinks.
- The dollar. Higher US rates relative to other countries can strengthen the dollar (FRED broad dollar index). Because bitcoin is priced in dollars, a stronger dollar is often discussed as a headwind and a weaker one as a tailwind.
These links are loose, not laws. The IMF found that bitcoin moved much more in step with US stocks after 2020 than before (IMF, 2022), and that kind of correlation can change. Bitcoin also has its own drivers, such as halvings, adoption, regulation and leverage. Some holders view it as protection against loose monetary policy over the long run, while critics note it has often fallen during tightening. Both views are worth knowing.
Disclaimer
This page is education, not investment, trading or legal advice. Market-implied odds reflect traders' bets, not the Fed's intentions, and can be wrong. Cold Hard Custody makes no price predictions. Check the Federal Reserve's own releases before relying on any figure here.
Related
Sources
- Federal Reserve: FOMC meeting calendars and statements
- Federal Reserve: FOMC statement, September 16, 2026 (current target range)
- FRED: Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS), monthly
- FRED: Federal Funds Target Range, Upper Limit (DFEDTARU)
- FRED: Federal Funds Target Range, Lower Limit (DFEDTARL)
- Kalshi public market data: Fed decision markets (KXFEDDECISION)
- CME FedWatch Tool (fed funds futures probabilities)
- Federal Reserve: Monetary policy, what are its goals and how does it work?
- FRED: 10-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Security yield (DFII10, real yield)
- FRED: Nominal Broad US Dollar Index (DTWEXBGS)
- IMF Blog (Jan 2022): Crypto prices move more in sync with stocks