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Market indicators

Computed here: Pi Cycle, Mayer Multiple, 200-week MA

From Blockchain.com daily prices through 2026-10-15; weekly points shown. Latest: price $81.6k, Mayer Multiple 1.13, 200-week MA $66.6k.

Price111-day MA350-day MA × 2Halvings (est. = estimated)

Gray dashed markers: days the 111-day MA crossed above 2 × the 350-day MA in our data (2013-04-07, 2013-12-07, 2017-12-17, 2021-04-13). Educational only, not a trading signal.

Pi Cycle Top

Measures: Whether short-term price momentum has run far ahead of the long-term trend.
Formula: Signal when the 111-day simple moving average crosses above 2 × the 350-day simple moving average.
Creator: Philip Swift, April 2019 (LookIntoBitcoin; also credited by Glassnode).
Track record: In our own computation the cross fired on 2013-04-07, 2013-12-07, 2017-12-17 and 2021-04-13, each close to a local high. It missed the higher November 2021 peak and did not fire at all during the 2024–2025 highs. Three or four hits is a small sample, and the window lengths were chosen after the fact.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Pi Cycle Top

MVRV ratio

Measures: Market value relative to realized value, the aggregate price at which coins last moved on-chain.
Formula: MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap.
Creator: Murad Mahmudov and David Puell, Oct 1, 2018 (original article).
Track record: The authors identified 3.7 as an overvaluation threshold and 1 as undervaluation from data through September 2018 (same article). Thresholds fitted on past cycles can shift as the market matures.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: MVRV Z-Score · Checkonchain charts

MVRV Z-Score

Measures: How many standard deviations market cap sits above realized cap.
Formula: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap.
Creator: Awe & Wonder, October 2018 (Glassnode docs, which link the original post).
Track record: Glassnode notes high readings have historically coincided with tops and low ones with bottoms (docs). The original post's “90%+ accuracy” claim is the author's own, measured on past data.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: MVRV Z-Score

200-week moving average

Measures: The long-run average price over roughly four years.
Formula: Simple average of the last 200 weekly (1,400 daily) prices.
Creator: No single verified originator; a standard moving average. Chart: LookIntoBitcoin heatmap.
Track record: Often described as a cycle floor. In our data price traded below it in 2015, briefly in March 2020, for most of mid-2022 to October 2023, and again at times in June–August 2026, so it is not a hard floor.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: 200 Week MA Heatmap

Mayer Multiple

Measures: How stretched price is above or below its 200-day average.
Formula: Price ÷ 200-day simple moving average.
Creator: Trace Mayer (CoinDesk, Feb 17, 2019).
Track record: Mayer's simulations found accumulating below 2.4 gave the best long-term results (CoinDesk). In our data it last reached 2.4 in March 2021; the November 2021 and 2024–2025 highs came with much lower readings, so the old threshold did not flag them.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

Measures: The share of market cap that is unrealized profit or loss.
Formula: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap.
Creator: Adamant Capital (Tuur Demeester, Tamás Blummer, Michiel Lescrauwaet), February 2019 (original primer).
Track record: Sentiment bands (capitulation to euphoria) are descriptive labels on past cycles; we did not find a verified, dated hit-and-miss record to restate.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss · Checkonchain charts

Puell Multiple

Measures: Miner revenue today relative to its yearly average, a proxy for miner selling pressure.
Formula: Daily issuance value in USD ÷ 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.
Creator: David Puell, 2019 (introductory article).
Track record: Each halving cuts issuance in half overnight, which mechanically drops the ratio; readings around halvings need care.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Puell Multiple

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

Measures: Scarcity: existing supply relative to new annual supply, regressed against price.
Formula: SF = stock ÷ yearly flow; the model fits ln(market value) against ln(SF).
Creator: PlanB, Mar 22, 2019 (original article).
Track record: The article projected about $55,000 after the May 2020 halving, which price exceeded in 2021. The well-documented breakdown came next: on Jun 23, 2021 PlanB wrote “I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year” (post). Bitcoin did not reach $100,000 in 2021, and in our data peaked near $67,000 that November. Critics also note the model leaves out demand.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Stock-to-Flow model

Rainbow Chart

Measures: Price against colored bands around a logarithmic growth curve.
Formula: Log-regression curve of price over time, with fixed-width color bands.
Creator: Popularized by Blockchaincenter, which describes its origins and says the chart is meant for fun, not as financial advice (Blockchaincenter).
Track record: The bands have been redrawn as price left the original curve, which shows the limits of fitting curves to the past.
Charts: Blockchaincenter: Rainbow Chart · LookIntoBitcoin: Rainbow Chart

Realized Price

Measures: The average price at which all coins last moved on-chain, a rough aggregate cost basis.
Formula: Realized cap ÷ circulating supply; realized cap values each coin at its price when it last moved.
Creator: Realized cap was invented by Nic Carter and Antoine Le Calvez, as credited in the MVRV article.
Track record: Lost coins stay valued at old, low prices, so realized price likely understates the active market's cost basis.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Realized Price · Checkonchain charts

Hash Ribbons

Measures: Miner capitulation and recovery, from hash rate trends.
Formula: Capitulation when the 30-day SMA of hash rate falls below the 60-day SMA; the buy signal waits for recovery plus the 10-day price SMA above the 20-day.
Creator: Charles Edwards, Capriole, 2019 (Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms).
Track record: Edwards calls it “perhaps the best performing long-term buy signal for Bitcoin” (Capriole); that is the creator's own backtested claim. Halvings and mining-ban shocks can trigger capitulation for reasons unrelated to price.
Charts: LookIntoBitcoin: Hash Ribbons

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Measures: Short-term momentum on a 0–100 scale.
Formula: RSI = 100 − 100 ÷ (1 + RS), where RS = average gain ÷ average loss, typically over 14 periods.
Creator: J. Welles Wilder Jr., 1978 (StockCharts ChartSchool).
Track record: In strong trends RSI can stay overbought or oversold for long stretches, so 70/30 levels are not reliable turning points on their own (ChartSchool).

Funding rates

Measures: Leverage and positioning in perpetual futures.
Formula: Periodic payments between longs and shorts that keep a perpetual contract near the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts.
Creator: A mechanism of perpetual swaps, not one person's indicator (BitMEX perpetual contracts guide).
Track record: Rates vary by exchange and change every few hours; extreme readings show crowded positioning, not a reliable timing signal.
Charts: CoinGlass: Funding rates · LookIntoBitcoin: Funding rates

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