CHC Accumulation Zones

//@version=6
// ============================================================================
//  CHC Accumulation Zones  ·  Cold Hard Custody ("Everything Bitcoin")
// ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
//  EDUCATION ONLY. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. This script shows where BTC price
//  sits relative to well-known long-term valuation models and labels the
//  result as a historical ZONE ("Historically cheap", "Neutral",
//  "Historically overheated"). It never produces buy or sell signals and it
//  makes no prediction about future price. Models can and do fail.
//
//  Components (all computed from the chart's own price data):
//    1. 200-week SMA and price / 200WMA ratio
//    2. Mayer Multiple = price / 200-day SMA (Trace Mayer)
//    3. Power-law fair value: A * (days since genesis block)^B
//       Defaults A = 1.0117e-17, B = 5.82 (Giovanni Santostasi's published
//       model, as reproduced at charts.bgeometrics.com/power_law.html and
//       bitcoinfairprice.com). Independent OLS refits report B near 5.69
//       (btcpowerlaw.nl/research/reproducing-power-law/), so both are inputs.
//    4. Pi Cycle Top: 111-day SMA vs 2 x 350-day SMA (Philip Swift).
//       Pi Cycle can ONLY add to the "overheated" side; it never says "cheap".
//
//  Zone thresholds are adjustable inputs. Defaults marked "CHC setting" are
//  editorial choices for display, not sourced statistics.
//  v2: table position input, soft always-on zone tint, MVRV via
//  COINMETRICS:BTC_MVRV (display only unless toggled into the composite).
//  WEEKLY (1W) timeframe is best for viewing; daily also works.
//  Intended for BTC daily charts with long history (e.g. INDEX:BTCUSD or
//  BITSTAMP:BTCUSD) so the 200-week and 350-day averages have enough data.
// ============================================================================
indicator("CHC Accumulation Zones", shorttitle = "CHC Zones", overlay = true, max_bars_back = 2000)

// ---------- Colours (CHC theme) ----------
color ORANGE   = #F7931A          // Bitcoin orange: highlights / overheated
color COOL     = #4FA3D9          // cool blue: historically cheap
color GREY     = #8A8F98          // neutral
color DARK     = #15171C          // table background
color TEXT     = #E6E6E6

// ---------- Inputs ----------
string G1 = "200-week SMA"
int    wmaLen     = input.int(200, "Length (weeks)", minval = 10, group = G1)
float  wmaCheap   = input.float(1.0, "Cheap below ratio", step = 0.05, group = G1, tooltip = "Price below the 200-week SMA. CHC setting.")
float  wmaHot     = input.float(3.0, "Overheated above ratio", step = 0.1, group = G1, tooltip = "CHC setting, adjust to taste.")

string G2 = "Mayer Multiple"
int    dmaLen     = input.int(200, "SMA length (days)", minval = 10, group = G2)
float  mayerCheap = input.float(1.0, "Cheap below", step = 0.05, group = G2, tooltip = "Price below its 200-day SMA. CHC setting.")
float  mayerHot   = input.float(2.4, "Overheated above", step = 0.1, group = G2, tooltip = "2.4 is the level Trace Mayer originally discussed.")

string G3 = "Power law (Santostasi)"
float  plA        = input.float(1.0117e-17, "Coefficient A", group = G3, tooltip = "Default 1.0117e-17 (Santostasi model as published by BGeometrics / bitcoinfairprice.com).")
float  plB        = input.float(5.82, "Exponent B", step = 0.01, group = G3, tooltip = "Default 5.82 (Santostasi). An independent OLS refit gives ~5.69 (btcpowerlaw.nl).")
float  plCheap    = input.float(1.0, "Cheap below price / fair value", step = 0.05, group = G3, tooltip = "Below modelled fair value. CHC setting.")
float  plHot      = input.float(2.5, "Overheated above price / fair value", step = 0.1, group = G3, tooltip = "CHC setting, adjust to taste.")
bool   showPL     = input.bool(true, "Plot power-law fair value", group = G3)

string G4 = "Pi Cycle Top"
int    piFast     = input.int(111, "Fast SMA (days)", group = G4)
int    piSlow     = input.int(350, "Slow SMA (days, multiplied by 2)", group = G4)
int    piMemory   = input.int(30, "Count as overheated for N bars after a cross", minval = 0, group = G4, tooltip = "CHC setting.")

string G5 = "Composite"
int    minAgree   = input.int(2, "Components needed to agree", minval = 1, maxval = 5, group = G5, tooltip = "Best viewed on the WEEKLY (1W) timeframe, zoomed out, so the 200-week SMA and power-law lines and past zones are visible.")
bool   colorBars  = input.bool(true, "Colour price bars", group = G5)
bool   colorBg    = input.bool(true, "Colour background", group = G5)
int    bgTransp   = input.int(80, "Strong shading transparency (signals agree)", minval = 0, maxval = 100, group = G5)
bool   softTint   = input.bool(true, "Always-on soft tint (leans cheap / neutral / hot)", group = G5, tooltip = "Light tint on every bar: blue when more components lean cheap, orange when more lean hot, grey otherwise. Weekly (1W) timeframe is best.")
int    softTransp = input.int(90, "Soft tint transparency", minval = 0, maxval = 100, group = G5)
bool   tintNeutral = input.bool(true, "Tint neutral bars grey", group = G5)
string tablePos   = input.string("top_right", "Table position", options = ["top_left", "top_center", "top_right", "middle_left", "middle_center", "middle_right", "bottom_left", "bottom_center", "bottom_right"], group = G5, tooltip = "TradingView tables cannot be dragged; pick a spot here.")

string G6 = "MVRV (Coin Metrics on-chain data)"
string mvrvSym    = input.symbol("COINMETRICS:BTC_MVRV", "MVRV symbol (blank = off)", group = G6, tooltip = "Default: Coin Metrics BTC MVRV (market cap / realized cap). Shows n/a if the feed is not available on your plan.")
float  mvrvCheap  = input.float(1.0, "Cheap below", step = 0.05, group = G6, tooltip = "Market value below realized value. CHC setting.")
float  mvrvHot    = input.float(3.5, "Overheated above", step = 0.1, group = G6, tooltip = "CHC setting, adjust to taste.")
bool   mvrvInComp = input.bool(false, "Include MVRV in composite", group = G6, tooltip = "Off by default: MVRV is display only.")

// ---------- Helpers ----------
// Returns -1 (cheap), 0 (neutral), 1 (overheated) for a ratio.
zoneOf(float v, float cheapLvl, float hotLvl) =>
    na(v) ? 0 : v < cheapLvl ? -1 : v > hotLvl ? 1 : 0

zoneText(int z) =>
    z < 0 ? "Historically cheap" : z > 0 ? "Historically overheated" : "Neutral"

zoneColor(int z) =>
    z < 0 ? COOL : z > 0 ? ORANGE : GREY

// ---------- 1. 200-week SMA (non-repainting: last completed week) ----------
float wma200 = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "W", ta.sma(close, wmaLen)[1], lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_on)
float wmaRatio = close / wma200
int   zWma = zoneOf(wmaRatio, wmaCheap, wmaHot)

// ---------- 2. Mayer Multiple (daily data) ----------
float dma200 = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", ta.sma(close, dmaLen)[1], lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_on)
float mayer = close / dma200
int   zMayer = zoneOf(mayer, mayerCheap, mayerHot)

// ---------- 3. Power law ----------
// Days since the genesis block, 3 Jan 2009 00:00 UTC.
int   GENESIS = timestamp("UTC", 2009, 1, 3, 0, 0)
float days    = (time - GENESIS) / 86400000.0
float plFair  = days > 0 ? plA * math.pow(days, plB) : na
float plRatio = close / plFair
int   zPL     = zoneOf(plRatio, plCheap, plHot)

// ---------- 4. Pi Cycle Top (overheated side only) ----------
[piF, piS] = request.security(syminfo.tickerid, "D", [ta.sma(close, piFast)[1], 2 * ta.sma(close, piSlow)[1]], lookahead = barmerge.lookahead_on)
bool  piCross = ta.crossover(piF, piS)
int   barsSincePi = ta.barssince(piCross)
bool  piHot = (not na(piF) and not na(piS) and piF >= piS) or (not na(barsSincePi) and barsSincePi <= piMemory)
int   zPi   = piHot ? 1 : 0

// ---------- Optional MVRV (display only) ----------
// Always call request.security (with a fallback symbol) so the call is not conditional; blank input => na.
float mvrvRaw = request.security(mvrvSym == "" ? syminfo.tickerid : mvrvSym, timeframe.period, close, ignore_invalid_symbol = true)
float mvrv = mvrvSym == "" ? na : mvrvRaw
int   zMvrv = zoneOf(mvrv, mvrvCheap, mvrvHot)
int   zMvrvComp = mvrvInComp ? zMvrv : 0

// ---------- Composite zone ----------
int nCheap = (zWma < 0 ? 1 : 0) + (zMayer < 0 ? 1 : 0) + (zPL < 0 ? 1 : 0) + (zMvrvComp < 0 ? 1 : 0)
int nHot   = (zWma > 0 ? 1 : 0) + (zMayer > 0 ? 1 : 0) + (zPL > 0 ? 1 : 0) + zPi + (zMvrvComp > 0 ? 1 : 0)
int zone   = nHot >= minAgree ? 1 : (nCheap >= minAgree and nHot == 0) ? -1 : 0

// Soft lean: which side has more components, regardless of agreement.
int lean = nCheap > nHot ? -1 : nHot > nCheap ? 1 : 0

// ---------- Plots ----------
plot(wma200, "200-week SMA", color = color.new(COOL, 0), linewidth = 3)
plot(showPL ? plFair : na, "Power-law fair value", color = color.new(ORANGE, 0), linewidth = 3)
plotshape(piCross, "Pi Cycle cross", shape.xcross, location.abovebar, ORANGE, size = size.small)
barcolor(colorBars ? zoneColor(zone) : na)
color softCol = (lean != 0 or tintNeutral) ? color.new(zoneColor(lean), lean == 0 ? math.min(100, softTransp + 6) : softTransp) : na
bgcolor(softTint ? softCol : na, title = "Soft tint")
bgcolor(colorBg and zone != 0 ? color.new(zoneColor(zone), bgTransp) : na, title = "Strong shading")

// ---------- Table ----------
tblPos(string p) =>
    switch p
        "top_left"      => position.top_left
        "top_center"    => position.top_center
        "middle_left"   => position.middle_left
        "middle_center" => position.middle_center
        "middle_right"  => position.middle_right
        "bottom_left"   => position.bottom_left
        "bottom_center" => position.bottom_center
        "bottom_right"  => position.bottom_right
        => position.top_right

var table t = table.new(tblPos(tablePos), 3, 7, bgcolor = color.new(DARK, 10), border_color = color.new(GREY, 60), border_width = 1)
fmt(float v) =>
    na(v) ? "n/a" : str.tostring(v, "#.##")

if barstate.islast
    table.cell(t, 0, 0, "CHC Accumulation Zones", text_color = ORANGE, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 0, "Value", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 0, "Zone", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 1, "Price / 200W SMA", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 1, fmt(wmaRatio), text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 1, zoneText(zWma), text_color = zoneColor(zWma), text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 2, "Mayer Multiple", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 2, fmt(mayer), text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 2, zoneText(zMayer), text_color = zoneColor(zMayer), text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 3, "Price / power law", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 3, fmt(plRatio), text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 3, zoneText(zPL), text_color = zoneColor(zPL), text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 4, "Pi Cycle (111 vs 2x350)", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 4, fmt(piF / piS), text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 4, piHot ? "Historically overheated" : "Neutral", text_color = zoneColor(zPi), text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 5, "MVRV (Coin Metrics)", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 5, fmt(mvrv), text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 5, na(mvrv) ? "n/a on this plan" : zoneText(zMvrv) + (mvrvInComp ? "" : " (display)"), text_color = na(mvrv) ? GREY : zoneColor(zMvrv), text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 0, 6, "COMPOSITE", text_color = ORANGE, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 1, 6, str.tostring(nCheap) + " cheap / " + str.tostring(nHot) + " hot", text_color = TEXT, text_size = size.small)
    table.cell(t, 2, 6, zoneText(zone), text_color = zoneColor(zone), text_size = size.small)

// ---------- Alerts (zone changes only; informational, not signals) ----------
bool zoneChanged = zone != zone[1]
alertcondition(zoneChanged and zone == -1, "Entered: Historically cheap", "CHC Zones: {{ticker}} entered the Historically cheap zone. Education only, not advice.")
alertcondition(zoneChanged and zone == 0, "Entered: Neutral", "CHC Zones: {{ticker}} entered the Neutral zone. Education only, not advice.")
alertcondition(zoneChanged and zone == 1, "Entered: Historically overheated", "CHC Zones: {{ticker}} entered the Historically overheated zone. Education only, not advice.")
alertcondition(zoneChanged, "Any zone change", "CHC Zones: {{ticker}} changed zone. Education only, not advice.")