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The power-law model
Bitcoin price vs. the power-law fit
Log price against log days since the genesis block (Jan 3, 2009). Latest weekly point: $81.6k, 0.58× the fitted line.
Lines past today are the formula extended, not a forecast. Hover or tap for values.
What the model says
A power law has the form price = 10a × db, where d is days since the genesis block. Taking logs on both sides gives log₁₀(price) = a + b·log₁₀(d), a straight line on log-log axes. Harold Christopher Burger popularized this view in 2019, fitting a = −17.016 and b = 5.845 with d counted from January 1, 2009, and describing a corridor between a support line and a line through market tops (Burger, 2019). Giovanni Santostasi is also widely credited with developing the model; we could not open a primary paper or post of his to cite, so we do not quote his parameters.
Our fit
- Data: 5,903 daily prices from Blockchain.com, 2010-08-18 to 2026-10-15, retrieved 2026-10-15. d = days since Jan 3, 2009 (genesis block).
- Ordinary least squares on log₁₀(price) vs log₁₀(d): a = -16.201, b = 5.599, R² = 0.960. Each day counts equally, so the dense recent years weigh more than the sparse early ones.
- Corridor: the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of past residuals, 0.40× to 5.28× the fitted line. Over the full history, price ranged from 0.18× to 16.52× the line.
- The slope differs from Burger's 2019 value because seven more years of data, mostly below the old line's extension, pulled it down. That refit drift is itself a reason for caution.
Limits and criticisms
- A good fit to the past is not evidence of a mechanism. Many growing series look straight on log-log axes over a limited range.
- Results depend on choices: where d starts, which price series, whether the earliest thin-market prices are included, and how points are weighted.
- Lines extended past today are arithmetic, not forecasts. Bitcoin can trade outside any corridor drawn from its history.
About bitcoinfairprice.com
The site exists and offers a power-law fair-price calculator. As of 2026-10-15 it names no operator, the domain registration is privacy-protected, and we found no terms of use, data license or public API. Without clear permission to reuse its numbers we did not use it; every line here is computed from the sources listed below.
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